Boston vs. Atlanta — Game 1, Sunday (8:30p EDT)
Kelly Dwyer: This shouldn’t be an issue for Boston, it’s hard to beat any pro team four times in a week, but a sweep would not be a surprise.
Boston’s reserves toppled Atlanta’s starters in a game earlier this month, Sam I Am came through with the cojones rumble after nailing an 16-footer on the left side of the court to close the win, and the Hawks just won’t have enough to take a game unless somebody gets really, really hot.
And, now that Shelden Williams is out of Atlanta, nobody’s going to do that. Pity.
What would warm my heart would be a few 28-point wins for the C’s. It’s not that I want to see Atlanta trashed beyond belief, but I would like Boston warm up after a second half of the season that they basically took off. This isn’t to say that I didn’t like them taking it easy, I was pining for fewer minutes for Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, et al back in December, and hopefully the rest did this (what could be a) legendary bunch good.
A few 100-72 wins against the Hawks would lead me to believe that we’re in store for a classic Eastern Conference final against the Pistons. Or, should Detroit falter, a classic Finals pairing against whatever team comes out of the West. The C’s need to perk up, especially if Washington shows up in the second round.
Celtics in two.
J.E. Skeets: I’m going to use a lot less words to run through these series previews because everything that needs to be said has already been said, and chances are you just read it above. So, instead, I'll force a few bad jokes, give you my prediction and we’ll call it a day. It's patio weather in Toronto this afternoon, and my pasty white skin could really use the sun. (My pasty white skin could also go for a beer.)
This series is going to be a massacre if you consider the broom a dangerous weapon in combat. Boston is too focused on the defensive end of the floor to fall asleep and let Joe Johnson or Mike Bibby steal a game late in fourth. It's not going to happen. It can't happen.
Celtics in four. Big yawn.
*****
Detroit vs. Philadelphia — Game 1, Sunday (6:00p EDT)
KD: Philadelphia can win this series, and on the flip side of that, Detroit can win the NBA Finals in five games against any Western team. As it’s always been, the onus is on the Pistons.
Philly makes its hay by getting to the front of the rim, and daring you stop them. Dunk after lay-in after alley-oop after reverse after which the score is 89-74 all of the sudden and you don’t feel like coming back. The trick for Detroit is to care, and that’s been tricky for this bunch for about two years now.
With the Pistons, I’m scared that the team’s formidable bench could lead them to a win, without the starters having to play well. It would essentially be an extension of the regular season, and it would essentially end the team’s season, because you essentially know certain guys on this team who are nicknamed “Roscoe” much prefer waiving a towel and exhorting the youngsters to taking the opposing team’s power forward to the low block.
It’s not that the Pistons are lazy. It’s just that didn’t mind losing and making excuses while throwing the Eastern Conference title away in 2006 and 2007. You could tell in both of those years during first round wins (against Milwaukee and Orlando, respectively) that the Pistons weren’t up to the task, and I’m hoping to see better signs this time around.
Pistons in five.
JE: Everyone keeps telling me that the Sixers are a scary first-round match-up even though they’re a sub-.500 team that messed up the sheets over the final week of the regular season. Everyone also keeps telling me how great I look in skinny jeans. Everyone is lying to me.
Yes, yes, the Sixers beat the Pistons twice this season, including once in the Palace of Auburn Hills. The Sixers won the glass and the Pistons turned the ball over in each game. Well let me tell you something in a very strict voice: Rebounding takes effort, and controlling the ball takes focus. The Pistons’ starters couldn’t care less for those two white board words — effort and focus — late in the regular season. They do, and will, in mid-April.
Pistons in five.
*****
Orlando vs. Toronto — Game 1, Sunday (12:30p EDT)
KD: To hear some pundits refer to the Cavs/Wizards pairing as the only interesting duel in the East’s first round was a bit infuriating, because this bad boy is going to be a battle.
Orlando is a damn good team, but Toronto has historically matched up well against the Magic, and taken them apart over the last few years. It doesn’t mean that the Raptors are any better, but they have the right parts and Orlando’s laughably-bad bench won’t be able to make up for the matchup issues Toronto creates.
The Magic will have their chances. If Rashard Lewis works his way into 20 shots, or if the point guard/Dwight Howard troika doesn’t turn the ball over much, then the Raptors will have a tough series on their hands. But that hasn’t been the case all season, even while the Magic won heaps of games. Lewis has been willing to float, and Chris Bosh might average 30 in this series.
Still, these guys know each other. Since the 2005-06 season, both of these teams have put forth spirited, standout efforts against each other, and it’ll make for a fun watch.
Raptors in six.
JE: A solid match-up in Toronto's favor for two key reasons:
1) Contrary to what Kenny Smith tells you, the Raps' point guard play is much better than the Magic’s duo of Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo. In fact, my ninth sense tells me that T.J. Ford’s clutch scoring will single-handedly win the Raps a game in this series, while Jose Calderon’s steady leadership won’t (specifically) cost them any. (My ninth sense is called obvious.)
2) The Magic don’t have the services of an elite, scoring two-guard. (Sorry, Redick.) As hard as Anthony Parker gets at it on the defensive end, high-volume scorers usually destroy him. It’s painful to watch. And while Keith Bogans has been known to hit the open three in the corner, he’s not going to change a series. This individual match-up will hopefully give AP a little more energy on the offensive side of the ball.
With that said, there is no doubt (even in my homer mind) that Sam Micthell will be out-coached by Stan Van Gundy at some point over a long, seven game series. That mustache is wise.
Magic in seven. (Reverse-jinx!)
*****
Cleveland at Washington — Game 1, Saturday (12:30p EDT)
KD: Cleveland just never got it right this season.
Last year, they took advantage of an easy bracket in the first two rounds, a mopey Piston team, and one stand-out game from LeBron James to make it to the Finals. The hallmarks were defense, LeBron going for 35, and a bit more defense.
This year, LeBron went for 35 quite a bit, but the defense let up. And then the team made a trade, bringing in Wally Szczerbiak, Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, and Delonte West; ostensibly to aid that pitiful offense. Then the offense let up. And the defense hadn’t exactly returned at this point. And the team never settled on a rotation or a starting lineup, while limping toward the end of the season.
Meanwhile, the Wizards have proven themselves all year, without Gilbert Arenas, without Caron Butler … and now they have both back. The only obstacle?
A motivated LeBron. This is pro basketball, cats and kittens, and one man can down an entire team. It won’t be easy, but LeBron can do it if he attacks the defensive boards and starts a one-man break on his own. He has to do his damage before the defense can hone in on him while ignoring the rest of his ignoble teammates. It’s the only way Cleveland can survive.
I don’t know if LeBron, too beholden (for whatever reason) to his play-calling coaching staff at this point, will pull it off.�
Wizards in six.
Skeets: I couldn’t agree more with KD.
Wait, yes I could.
Wizards in five.
Too much Rod Benson: Creating my virtual self
Sports video games, like The Matrix in a way, are always a little different from real life because they follow sets of rules. When I play Madden, I know that if Junior Seau comes after Tony Romo, Romo's 82 SPEED will help him escape. Seau may track him down in real life, but he will never catch Romo in the game.
Basketball video games are similar. I'm not talking about the old school games like Double Dribble (the most fun a seven-year-old can have in 1991) or NBA Jam. I'm talking about the new hotness NBA 2K8. Baron Davis and his 99 CLOSE and 99 LAYUP ratings mean that he is guaranteed buckets inside of ten feet. Seriously, it's impossible to get him to miss anything inside no matter how well contested his attempt may be.
I bring this up because my teammate Renaldo Major just entered a code on his PS2 that unlocked many things. Among them was a D-League All-Star team. I couldn't believe that there was really a D-League team on that bad boy. It got me to thinking that it would be funny if there were a whole D-League game complete with ratings. I remember when I was in college I had a "99 INS SCR" which I think meant inside scoring, but I have never been fully sure.
Well, it got me to thinking about what my ratings would be this season. If you know video games, you know there is a pre-season rating and a roster updated rating based on season performance. Tony Romo didn't begin the year with 82 SPEED, he earned it. I decided to give myself my 2K8 ratings pre-season and post-season, so that if they decide to put me in next years D-League game, they will have all the info they need.
Note that these ratings are relative to other D-Leaguers and not to the NBA.
Pre-season:
OVERALL: 83
CLOSE: 77
MEDIUM: 70
3-PT: 50
FT: 69
LAYUP: 73�
DUNK: 81
HANDLE: 74
PASS: 60
LOW POST DEFENSE: 78
LOW POST OFFENSE: 72
BLOCK: 79
STEAL: 69
OFFENSIVE REB: 94
DEFENSIVE REB: 91�
SPEED: 84
STAMINA: 70�
DURABILITY: 75
DEFENSIVE AWARENESS: 80
OFFENSIVE AWARENESS: 72
I would say those would have been my ratings before this season if a game had come out. Now that the season is over, with the appropriate roster updates, I'd be much more game ready.
Roster Updates:
OVERALL: 92
CLOSE: 90
MEDIUM: 74
3-PT: 50
FT: 69
LAYUP: 77�
DUNK: 81
HANDLE: 81
PASS: 65
LOW POST DEFENSE: 80
LOW POST OFFENSE: 87
BLOCK: 90
STEAL: 79�
OFFENSIVE REB: 99
DEFENSIVE REB: 99�
SPEED: 84
STAMINA: 86�
DURABILITY: 83
DEFENSIVE AWARENESS: 82
OFFENSIVE AWARENESS: 85
I think I'd be all right in the game now. I was league leader in rebounding, shot 52%, was 8th in the league in blocks, and averaged 18 and 13 over the last 16 games of the season. Although, if you look closely, there are some areas I improved in and some areas I still need to improve in if I'm gonna make it to the show. Time to hit the weights and improve my low post defense. If I do that I should be staring at a 70 OVERALL in the NBA instead of a 92 in the D-League, if you get my drift.
Rod Benson is a Cal grad who plays for the D-League's Dakota Wizards. He also blogs two or three times a week on Ball Don't Lie. Read his archive, pay a visit to TooMuchRodBenson.com and always support the Boom Tho movement.
NBA Playoff Previews: No. 3 Spurs vs. No. 6 Suns
After 1,230 regular season games, the NBA Playoffs are finally here. (Tomorrow!) KD and I will have our own first round predictions soon, but for now we finish with our bloggin' team experts. Up last: Spurs Dynasty and Phoenix Stan from Bright Side of the Sun breakdown the San Antonio-Phoenix rematch. Enjoy.
(Note: I actually dropped the ball trying to land a Spurs blogger. So, instead, here is an excerpt from Spurs Dynasty's look at the series. Click here and scroll down for their complete PG-13 analysis.)
Spurs Dynasty: I'm not going to sugarcoat it for you youngsters, it won't be easy. Before we always had an edge on these guys because we could neutralize Shawn Marion like nobody else could. Against everyone else the guy is a superduperstar. Against us in May he was basically Drew Gooden. Ten, twelve points, and maybe a dozen or so mostly defensive rebounds. Decent numbers but nobody you concern yourself with at the end of the day.
We made Marion a non-factor because "The Matrix" as he fancies himself can only score in one of three ways: Transition, 3 pointers, and putbacks. Well guess what our defensive specialties are kiddies? Getting back on defense, limiting threes, and defensive rebounding. Stopping Marion didn't involve a single extra sentence in our game plan, it was all stuff we do well with regularity anyway.
But now Marion is gone and in his place is the Big Fatso and all his HILARIOUS quotes. To my shock, the jerkass has proven that he can still be an effective scorer when inspired and it really is pretty stupid at this point for us to guard him one-on-one. He's still too damn big and as accurate from two feet away as you'd expect a seven-footer to be.
We gotta double him. Simple as that. Gotta double him and make him give it up. The guy is a turnover machine and just the act of making him think or pass will give us a half dozen easy fast break points. "Shaq" and "thinking" go together as well as "blimp" and "hydrogen." It's like a Reese's Peanut Butter Cup, but the exact opposite. [...]
*****
Phoenix Stan, Bright Side of the Sun: This series is just like when I was growing up on the mean streets of Maryvale on the west side of Phoenix. In sixth grade there were a group of boys from the next block that always picked on me. Stole my lunch money and generally pushed me around. Then over the summer I grew three inches and put on 15 pounds, took karate lessons, bought a baseball bat and my big brother came home from the Army. We showed those punks who's boss! It's time to kick the Spurs in the teeth.
Basketball analysis starts where we left off last year. Since then, the Spurs are older, slower and have much less depth and far fewer weapons offensively. They don't have the ability to score in more then two or three ways anymore and have to hold the Suns to under 90 points to have any chance at all.
Is there anyone anywhere that thinks the Spurs are better now then they were a year ago?
The Suns on other hand, are a much improved basketball team. Most notably in all areas of the game.
Shaq of course gets most of the attention and rightly so. He's owned Duncan over their careers and makes double teams unnecessary. When you don't have to double Timmy in the post there's only two other guys on the Spurs team that can beat you off the dribble. Two. And they generally don't play well together.
San Antonio, where average defensive teams go to look good happens.
Offensively the Suns now can throw the ball in the post to Shaq. Give the ball to Grant or Barbosa in transition or on the wing to create. Post up Diaw when the Spurs switch and neutralize the Spurs best perimeter defender by playing Nash off the ball when Bowen saddles up.
And let's not forget Amare — the most dominate unstoppable offensive force in the game (over the past three months). In isolation at the top of the key where he's impossible to double or on the unguardable pick and rolls. There is no answer.
The only way the Spurs can hold the Suns to under 100 points in a game is with foul trouble. And this is the deepest Suns team yet. Gordan Giricek and Boris Diaw will be huge in this series.
Bring your cups gentlemen. It's not going to be pretty. But this time big brother is here and he's fully armed for battle.
Prediction: The Spurs will win a couple based on playoff savvy (knees, flops and whines) but that's it —� Suns in 6.
Previous Blogger Playoff Previews:
BOS-ATL | CLE-WAS | ORL-TOR | DET-PHI | LAL-DEN | NO-DAL | UTA-HOU
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